When Knowing the Future Makes You Go Broke

Expensive Lessons from Haghani & White (2024)

Let’s Play a Game

I give you some money, a crystal ball, and a time machine.

The rules. Each round, you land on a random date between 2008 and 2022.¹ You’re shown the front page of the Wall Street Journal from the next day (prices blacked out; it’s a game, not a cheat). You read. You bet on the S&P 500, on 30-year Treasuries, on both, or you skip the round. Maximum leverage allowed: 50x. You close your position at the next day’s close.

15 rounds. 45 minutes. Go.