Where I’ve Been and the Future of This Newsletter
From Masters of Compounding to Undiscovered Compounders
I have been quiet here for the past few weeks.
For good reason: I was laying the foundations for what this newsletter is going to become.
My job is to turn over rocks. To analyze companies obsessively until I find one that appears genuinely exceptional, then take it apart from top to bottom until I understand it better than almost anyone else.
That is the direction Undiscovered Compounders is going to take.
I will now publish my investment theses on the exceptional companies I find: small caps and micro caps buried in obscurity, each with its own dose of alpha.
The idea is simple. Investors want alpha. My job is to find it. And I am going to charge for the work.
But before asking anyone to pay, I need to show what the work is worth.
That is the point of these past few weeks of silence.
On Saturday, I will publish 2 pieces.
The first is an investment thesis on a company that is probably the best risk/reward setup I have seen in my career. It’s 40,000 words. Around three and a half hours of reading.
I detailed everything: the market, the project, the numbers, the valuation, the risks, the downside, the upside, every assumption I could check, and every place where I could be wrong.
I spent hundreds of hours on this thesis. After that work, and the feedback I received from people I trust, I am comfortable saying this is the kind of research you rarely find on Substack.
That piece will be free.The second piece is a better way to play the same setup. Objectively better, but with a different risk profile. It rests on the first thesis, which already does the heavy lifting. So this one is only 8,000 words.
It’s a setup inside the setup. And it is a good example of the kind of alpha that can still be found when you look where very few investors are looking.
That piece will be behind the paywall.
The free side of this newsletter will remain serious. It has to. It’s where trust is built. But paid subscribers will get the deepest company research and most of the alpha opportunities I find.
I can’t promise a fixed frequency of investment theses. Turning over rocks is too messy for that.
But now that my investing work and this newsletter overlap almost entirely, I can promise this: about 90 hours a week spent looking for alpha, with the best of what I find turned into publishable work.
This newsletter is only the first step in something larger.
I am building with a time horizon measured in decades, and the past month and a half was spent laying the foundations for that.
But one thing at a time.
For now, the point is simple: the reputation I am building is my best asset. I intend to protect it, and build everything around it.
I will try to prove that on Saturday.
Take care,
Flo