I've deliberately hidden the company's name. I know John is on Substack, and I'd be really uncomfortable if he recognized himself should he come across this post. That said, if you're really curious, I'm sure you could find ways to track down the company.
For me the takeaway is that there a lot of 4x companies. Well not a lot but they are there and they are illogical. I still prefer to stay in the logical side. Luck exists, and also momentum is irrational. That does not means a lot of money has been made from this trade.
I find one makes more mistakes with good ideas than bad. With a good idea hubris can affect ones thinking.
Well put. Especially since the severity of those 'good idea' errors tends to get drowned out by the positivity surrounding the 'good idea' itself.
What was the company?
I've deliberately hidden the company's name. I know John is on Substack, and I'd be really uncomfortable if he recognized himself should he come across this post. That said, if you're really curious, I'm sure you could find ways to track down the company.
What about your holding? Do u write about them?
I'm currently writing my first deep dive on one of my positions. It'll be out next week.
Interesting read. Begs the question, if the company is crap, why the 4x?
I see two reasons for that rise:
The climb in underlying commodity prices.
A parallel marketing push, both from management and from the big investors themselves.
But imho, the second reason is the most compelling.
I'm a bit confused at what the takeaway is supposed to be of this tale?
For me the takeaway is that there a lot of 4x companies. Well not a lot but they are there and they are illogical. I still prefer to stay in the logical side. Luck exists, and also momentum is irrational. That does not means a lot of money has been made from this trade.